The Nightly News Without Brian Williams

Hello All,

This blog is all about world politics and foreign policy. I am a student in Washington D.C., and I'm hoping this forum becomes a good place to discuss the big issues that are facing our world today. I'm not pretending to be an expert, just looking to learn more and help others do the same.

Thanks,
Elias

The last two weeks have proven truly decisive in the Libyan civil war. It seems that, after 6 months of hard fighting, the Libyan revolutionaries can claim victory. Though Qaddafi himself has not been found, and pockets of Loyalist resistance remain, it is clear that the Libyan rebels have essentially toppled the Qaddafi regime.

Throughout the campaign doubts as to the military capacity of the rebel forces shrouded the entire movement with a sense of pessimism. True, after the initial air assault led by the United States, rebel forces suffered a host of military and strategic failures, often proving themselves incapable of holding captured territory. However, the sheer magnitude of their task is difficult to overstate. The rebels were not some guerilla group or insurgency – they were civilians, totally new to the battlefield. Before the war they were teachers, doctors, artists, craftsman, engineers that somehow managed to unify into a fighting force competent enough to fight the organized, well trained and well equipped Qaddafi military. With little preparation and few weapons the rebels have ousted Col. Qaddafi and are now facing the prospects of rebuilding Libya.

Despite amateur nature of the rebel military, the battle for Tripoli demonstrated astounding coordination, swiftness, and tactical prowess. The planning for the assault on Tripoli was carefully drawn out, and executed with shocking precision. In addition to the weapons and fuel supplied by the French British and Qatari intelligence organizations, around 100 rebels were sent to Qatar to receive special training specifically for the operation. Having cut off supply lines to Tripoli over the preceding weeks, the rebels activated sleeper cells within the Libyan capital who they had been supplying with weapons and ammunition for months, to begin their attack. In coordination with the insurgency inside Tripoli, rebel forces advanced from all sides, even by boat, arranging a flotilla from the town of Misurata in an operation the rebels called Mermaid Dawn. When the fighting inside the city became especially intense, the Qatari trained rebels were sent in as decisive reinforcements. From the west, intensified NATO airstrikes paved the way to Tripoli and successfully thwarted an attempted Loyalist counteroffensive against Zawiyah. Once in the city, the rebel offensive moved at a breakneck pace through the capital. Finally, on August 23rd the rebels managed to take Qaddafi’s command compound – effectively capturing the Libyan capital.  

Still, elements of Qaddafi’s Loyalist militias remain, evidenced by the continued fighting in Tripoli, where reports of gunfire throughout the city center suggest that, militarily, there is still work to be done. But perhaps the most daunting task facing the Libyan people is the prospects of a Libya without Qaddafi. Though they have achieved a military victory, strategically managing to unite all of Libya under a single banner may prove their most grim challenge. Libya is a patchwork of diverse tribal/ethnic loyalties, and without Qaddafi as the unifying enemy, there are fears that Libya could slip into a protracted civil war. But for the moment, the rebels may breathe a brief sigh of relief and accomplishment – for now, Libya is theirs to build or destroy.

Battle for Tripoli

A spokesperson for the National Transitional Council in Benghazi Libya has reported that Libyan rebels have captured Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi in Tripoli as their troops break through Loyalist defenses. Seif Qaddafi is Col Qaddafi’s son and 2nd in command as well as the leader of the 32nd brigade - the Libyan special forces.

Rebels claim to have captured huge tracks of Tripoli, Qaddafi’s last stronghold, as rebel flags begin to dot the skyline. NATO has continued to provide essential close air support, clearing the way for the rebel advance and thwarting an attempted Loyalist counteroffensive to retake Zawiyah. It seems that the rebels may be inches from claiming victory.

Battle for Tripoli

Rebel forces have begun fighting on the fringes of the Libyan capital, where they have managed to capture the khamis brigade compound - the headquarters for the 32nd brigade, the special forces unit controlled by Qaddafi’s son and thought to be the best trained and equipped troops in Libya.

Fighting gas continues throughout Sunday, as rebels advance deeper into the city where loyalists are using heavy machine-guns and mortars to fend of the attackers. Qaddafi made a second radio broadcast where he called on the people of tripoli to arm themselves and fight. Massive street demonstrations have also been reported

Qaddafi’s Ouster Seems Imminent

Reports of heavy fighting in outlying Tripoli neighborhoods suggests that rebellious factions within the Libyan capital are beginning to revolt in coordination with the rebels of the East and West. In recent days rebel forces have effectively cut off and surrounded Tripoli, capturing the towns of Zawiyah, Ziltan and possibly Brega. In addition, another high ranking Qaddafi government official has defected, binging to total to three in the last week.

Still, Qaddafi has amassed his forces around the city center where they are well dug in, and maintains control of Sirte - a loyalist city to the south that remains a bastion of Qaddafi support.  In the past rebels have proven incapable of holding captured territory to forceful counteroffensives. Yet, with a significantly intensified NATO bombing campaign, it seems unlikely that Qaddafi could mass the needed forces for an effective counteroffensive without becoming incredibly vulnerable to NATO air support. 

Rebel commanders in the East and in Tunisia say they are preparing to enter the city where they are working with local forces to soften Qaddafi’s frontlines, but reports also indicate that Qaddafi’s forces are taking up sniper positions and blocking off roads in preparation for a fight. Though the outcomes still remain uncertain, it seems that a battle for the Libyan capital is imminent. 

From Boston.com’s The BIg Picture Series. The United States is tentatively beginning the process of withdrawing a number of its combat troops form Afghanistan - a pledge that was made by President Obama in an address to the nation saying he would remove 33,000 troops by the end of 2012. However, a recent surge in violence seems to undermine the feasibility of such a draw-down - in recent weeks the Taliban have managed to take hostage the intercontinental hotel in Kabul, detonate a host of IEDs in and around the capital, shoot down a U.S. helicopter killing more than  20 Navy SEALs, and most recently taken over a British Council in Kabul. 

Yet, NATO military commanders point out that, though there has been a recent surge in bloodshed, it is still a far cry from the massive violence of 2008, 2009 and even 2010. This may, in part, be due to the fact that the Taliban have resorted to attacking civilian targets. 

(Source: Boston.com)

From the New York Times Battle for Libya series. In recent days, Libyan rebel forces have made substantial tactical progress in both the Eastern and Western fronts. Rebels in the West appear to have taken complete control of the strategically crucial city of Zawiyah, cutting off Col Qaddafi’s most vital supply line, essentially isolating Tripoli. 

In the East, Rebels are facing fierce fighting in the vital oil city of Brega. Recent reports indicate that rebels now control two of the three main residential districts, though they have yet to penetrate into the city center. Still, Col Qaddafi’s surely understands the importance of the city, and has the area heavily fortified and his forces dug in. 

These victories are important not just for their tactical significance but also for the moral boost they offer the rebel movement who have suffered a string of recent strategic and psychological setbacks, including the assassination of their premier military commander and internal tribal confrontations. In recent weeks many questioned the sustainability of the rebel movement, especially the National Transitional Council’s ability to control and mediate internal tribal divisons that threaten the movements unity. These recent victories may partially alleviate some of those fears. 

(Source: The New York Times)

Libyan Rebels Advance

Amidst recent speculative claims that the assassination of the rebel commander General Abdle Fattah Younis signaled a breakdown of the rebel structural unity into tribal factionalism, the Rebels have made a strong advance into the key city of Zawiyah, potentially cutting off the strategic supply route for Col Qaddafi’s forces in Tripoli. The offensive is an important tactical maneuver into this crucial city, coordinated in conjucntion with rebellious elements within Zawiyah and baked by NATO airstrikes. 

If the offensive can be sustained and the town itself held, it would be a huge defeat for the Qaddafi regime, who rely on the town as supply route to Tunisia - especially vital as the NATO naval bockade and Eastern rebel forces have eliminated other supply lines. Without it Qaddafi’s military, already facing food, fuel, and weapons shortages, could begin to feel even more pressure. Indeed, the advance would put the rebels in the West within 20 miles of Tripoli, and likely undermine Qaddafi’s war efforts in the Eastern oil city of Brega.  

What’s more, a victory here would be a much needed moral boost for the rebel forces, who have begun to show signs of strain from the 6 month long stalemate. It also speaks to the resilience of the rebel forces, who have undertaken the offensive without central organizational leadership, relying on their local commanders for direction and coordination. However, reports indicate that elements of Qaddafi’s military still remain in Zawiyah, including snipers who have taken up positions across the city’s highest buildings.  

From Boston.com’s the Big Picture Series. A young Somali refugee with his terminally ill mother at the Dadaab refugee camp near the Kenyan border. 

From Boston.com’s the Big Picture Series. A young Somali refugee with his terminally ill mother at the Dadaab refugee camp near the Kenyan border. 

As the war in Libya rages on, Muammar Qaddafi’s son, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, declared that the government was fostering an alliance with radical Islamists elements within the rebel ranks. In an hour long television address, Mr. Qaddafi spewed out borderline delusional statements meant to show the world the great lengths the regime was willing to go to to remain in power. 

Mr. Qaddafi insinuated that he and his father would be willing to turn this war into one of bloody religious one, pitting more liberal secularist factions against “terrorist” groups the government has spent years eliminating. In fact, the comments represent a complete 180 for the regime, which for decades had styled itself as an anti-Islamist force that was keeping Libya from falling into the hands of extremists. 

However, Mr. Qaddafi’s claims were refuted to some extent by other members of the Qaddafi government and those individuals Mr. Qaddafi cited as his contacts within the rebel ranks. Instead, his statements indicate a certain level of desperation within Tripoli -  it seems the drawn out nature of the conflict has taken its toll on the Qaddafi government as well. 

(Source: The New York Times)

From a Times Photo Essay. Photographer Alvaro Ybarra Zavala spent several months embedded with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarios de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) or FARC, a marxist insurgent organization that has waged a guerilla war against the Colombian government for nearly half a century. Though their fight has cost thousands of lives, in recent years the organization has come under intense pressure from a strong Military offensive heavily supported by American intelligence/defense agencies. In June, the groups top commander, Guillermo Torres, was captured in Venezuela, yet another devastating blow to the struggling organization.

(Source: TIME)

One of the few Western correspondents to make it into the contested areas of Syria, Anthony Shadid and photographer Moises Saman captured aspects of the Syrian resistance in Hama, like makeshift barricades intended to block tanks and personel carriers from re-entering the city. However, the recent military offensive in to Hama, and more recently into Deir al-Zour, have demonstrated the heroic futility of civilian defiance in the face of tanks and APCs. 

One of the few Western correspondents to make it into the contested areas of Syria, Anthony Shadid and photographer Moises Saman captured aspects of the Syrian resistance in Hama, like makeshift barricades intended to block tanks and personel carriers from re-entering the city. However, the recent military offensive in to Hama, and more recently into Deir al-Zour, have demonstrated the heroic futility of civilian defiance in the face of tanks and APCs. 

This week, elements of the Al-Shabaab militant Islamic organization withdrew from the Somali capital, Mogadishu - the first time the city has been entirely free of the Islamist militia in years. 

Recently, Al-Shabaab has sustained a series of tactical and strategic setbacks that may have prompted the retreat, including the death of its leader in a recent gun battle, continued American drone strikes that have eliminated members of its top leadership, and the loss of military control of the Bakara Market. In general, the intensification of fighting over the past several weeks between the African Union Peacekeepers that back the Somali Transitional Federal government and Al-Shabaab have been costly for the militant organization, who are not as well trained or well equipped as their African Union counterparts.

Although the Somali President, Sharif Ahmend, has declared victory, Al-Shabaab’s leadership has said that the withdrawal is part of a larger strategic shift in their operations that will move the organization’s tactics from conventional warfare to the sort of “hit-and-run” techniques that are the trademark of organizations like the Taliban. 

The hope among Western Nations, and no doubt of the Somali people, is that in Al-Shabaab’s absence foreign aid organizations may be able to begin providing desperately needed assistance and supplies to the famine stricken nation. Al-Shabaab had outlawed foreign aid groups from operating in their areas of control, making addressing the massive starvation in Somalia frustratingly difficult. 

From the New York Times, Somali refugees just across from the eastern Kenyan border making their way to a refugee camp in search of food. According to the New York times, the famine in the Horn of Africa has claimed the lives of more than 29,000 children under age 5 in the last 90 days. Unfortunately, the militant organization Al-Shabaab, which controls vast tracts of territory on Somalia, is not allowing aid groups into their areas of control. 

From the New York Times, Somali refugees just across from the eastern Kenyan border making their way to a refugee camp in search of food. According to the New York times, the famine in the Horn of Africa has claimed the lives of more than 29,000 children under age 5 in the last 90 days. Unfortunately, the militant organization Al-Shabaab, which controls vast tracts of territory on Somalia, is not allowing aid groups into their areas of control. 

Images released by Syria’s state run news agency, SANA, depict the city of Hama in ruins and mostly deserted. Though the intention of the release was to signal to the rest of the country and to the international community that the regime had effectively put an end to the 5 month old uprising, it also revealed a level of violence and disorder in Syria that the government had thus far refused to acknowledge.

In Syria, the Assad government renewed its assault on the restive city of Hama this week, as well as other unyielding cities, sending in tanks, armored personel carriers, and thousands of soldiers to occupy the city. The protest movement in Syria that began in mid-March of this year has persisted for months, and represents the most potent challenge the Assad regime has yet faced. Since March, the government crackdown has taken a heavy toll, with as many as 2,000 civilians dead. Despite heavy international condemnation, Bashar al-Assad continues to shock the world with the level of violence he is willing to visit on his own people.

In June, in the face of massive protests in many of the major cities, the Syrian military halted its operations and withdrew its forces from the larger population centers including Hama. Since then, the city had experienced a certain level of independence and peace, largely invalidating the Assad government claims that their operations were aimed at crushing a revolt lead by armed extremist gangs. Many in Hama believed that the military would not attempt to retake the city, especially considering Hama’s history - Assad’s father crushed an uprising in the 80’s based in Hama that left more than 10,000 dead (some estimates are as high as 40,000). But the Military’s offensive that began on the start of Ramadan seems aimed at crushing any signs of revolt, regardless of the human cost. In recent days casualty estimates have soared to more than 200 in Hama alone.